Furu To Guru Trading
Get your reps in. Make great trades.
Results Follow.
"The stock market will do whatever it has to do to embarrass the greatest
number of people, to the greatest extent possible."
— Walter Deemer
Disclaimer
Main Ideas
- Making a bad decision is the greatest problem in trading.
- You can't get better if you don't know what you're doing wrong. Use AARs.
- Is this trade worth taking a picture of and sharing it?
- Should you be looking to buy or sell on HTF? Until what level?
- Don't know? Don't trade. You'll know when you see a great setup.
- Take a picture of this setup. Is it crappy? You don't have to trade. Be accountable.
- Practice daily. Get your reps in. High quality. Real or sim/bar replay.
- Worried? Scared? Breathe. Let stop/targets decide. Size down. Wait for more info.
- What HTF level should you be waiting for?
- What is TTF current trend? Join it or wait for BO close.
- Is this a key level's first touch? It usually holds.
- Should you be waiting for a 2nd entry?
- What are traders doing on CVD? Hitting the bid? Lifting offers?
- Near end of day or Friday? DTE days far enough out? If Friday and the week had a big move, dealers close stock hedges.
- About to trade? Where's the stop? Where are the targets?
- Where is the next explosive trade level? News catalyst story?
- What's the HTF bias based on long trends/pushes/stop?
- What's the HTF bias based on short trends/pushes/stop?
- What's a great entry that may fail and trap traders?
- Have Patience, let stops or targets decide exits, not your emotions, can always get back in
- Set alerts and targets, don't stare at PA, it's toxic.
- Don't trade on your phone or rely on tight limit order, use the laptop and market orders or wide limit orders
- Don't die. Protect what you have. Trade smaller. Stick around.
- After action reviews, lessons learned, what to do less of, do more of
TA
- Practice daily. Get your reps in. High quality. Real or sim/bar replay.
- Entries should win right away. If not, is there a fight? Does the trend just want to weaken with a PB first?
- Check and Update HTF TTF TA every 5 minutes
- News? Big move recently? Great HTF pattern/key level?
- Trend > Consolidation > Trend Resumption or Trend Reversal
- TLs are the 3 widest points. Sup/res are most touches.
- Current trend HTF TTF
- Major Highs and Lows on HTF TTF. Major levels tend to hold on the first test.
- Bull and bear TLs on HTF TTF
- Bull and bear Pushes on HTF TTF. Especially 2-3 Pushes.
- Bull and bear Entry locations on HTF TTF
- Bull and bear Stops on HTF TTF
- BO mode, strong trend, weak trend, TR consolidation
- CVD: Buyers lifting offers vs Sellers hitting the bids
- Strong moves and big bars usually get 2nd moves
- Strong moves and big bars leave orders behind.
They get filled during PBs.
-
A TL or level fails only with BO closes
- Wicks do the damage. Closes tell the story.
Entries
- Wait for the market to demand you make a trade.
- DB DT BO or DB DT Test Reversal?
- Or wait for TL BO or TL Test Reversal?
- Or wait for BO BOPB Test Reversal?
- Obey HTF buy or sell bias. Join HTF with TTF pattern.
- Buy or sell bias HTF? Until what level?
- Buy near support, sell near resistance
- BO closes, or BO closes then PB to BOPB test
- Key level test closes or RBO 2RBO
- New major high low TL BO close for trend continuation or wait for PB to BOPB
- TL BO close then PB to BOPB test, then weaker trend resumption
- Fade bad entry RBOs
- TL DB DT BO close, HTF TTF, but watch out for BO failures to join
- TL DB DT BO PB RBOs or BO PB to BOPB HNS RBO HL LH test RBO
- TL DB DT BO fail reversal, HTF TTF
- Test of key level RBO at DB DT TR TL, HTF TTF
- BO Spike close or PB RBO
- BO Spike PB to BOPB HNS RBO LH HL test
- 3rd push RC RBO 2RBO
- Good entry fail 2RBO
- Bad entry near a test fail RBO 2RBO
- Use TTF to join HTF
- If great entry fails, you need to get out, it's a great entry fail, which you should be joining
- Have Patience for your entry, make good decisions, not bad decisions
- Explosive HTF TTF pattern
- Join HTF on TTF
Stops and Risk
- Prior swing high low
- Prior bar high low
- Push RBO 2RBO
- Big bar close or 2RBO NEAR target
- Reversal entry against your trade
- Trail to new swing high low created by a BO or DB DT
- Breakeven or EOD
- TL BO reversal
- 3rd push RC RBO
- Scared? Stop far away? Size down
- Let stop or target decide, can always get back in
- Set alerts and targets, don't stare at PA, it's toxic and may cause you to not let your stop or targets decide.
- If not using a hard stop and using a limit order stop,
make it far beyond price to get out. Get out. You're wrong. Protect what you have.
- Have Patience, let stops or targets decide exits, not your emotions
- Bet/lose what on this trade? Including commissions and fees.
- Bet your usual size, don't size up/nightengale, or you will be destroyed by the market
- Multiple options or share size to allow partial exits?
Targets
- When in doubt, always better to exit most of your position at key levels, can always get back in
- Key levels: TL DB DT HNS RBO BOPB OHLC
- Close or RBO near a target
- Big bar close near target/sup/res
- RBO 2RBO 3RBO
- 2nd 3rd push RBO 2RBO
- Have Patience, let targets or stops decide exits, not your emotions
- Partials along the way
- Lock in profits, reduce risk
After Action Reviews
- Trade well, profits follow. Master great habits and actions, rewards follow.
- Worst mistakes:
- Overtrading. Not respecting HTF buy sell bias until a certain level.
- Trading too big
- Reversing trade before it's completely wrong/stopped out, not waiting for major stop out to reversal
- Not respecting original stop, stopping out emotionally
- Not getting out at stop, big slippage using limit orders, use market orders if liquid or very wide limit orders
- Not trading with TTF trend or waiting for TTF reversal
- Not waiting for key HTF level to get in
- Not waiting for your favorite trades or even know what they are and writing them down, with picture examples
Disclaimer: Most traders fail. Most traders lose all or most of their
money trading. This is not financial advice. This is not a
recommendation to buy or sell any security. This is my degenerate trading
strategy and journey. Read at your own peril.