Furu To Guru Trading

"Stay in the game long enough to get lucky.
Also, I can’t think of a single example in my
whole life where ‘keeping it simple’ worked against us."
— Charlie Munger

Core Principles

You gotta do the thing to get good. Playbook examples, backtest, trade plan, trade (sim or real), and AAR.
I'd rather be late and right, than early and wrong.
Let the market decide entries and exits, stops and targets. Not your emotions.
Do everything you can to stay in this game. It's all about survival.
If you can't even trade small, then you definitely can't trade big.
Is this trade picture worthy TTF and HTF? If not, don't trade.
Trade well, profits follow. Trade the chart, not your emotions.
After action reviews, lessons learned. What'd you see? What'd you do wrong? What'd you do right?
Most attention, news, and option volume. Explosive moves
Making a bad decision is the greatest problem in trading.
Missed a trade? No worries, sim trade it until more info. Get more reps in baby
You can't get better if you don't know what you're doing wrong. Use AARs.
Should you be looking to buy or sell based on big picture context HTF? Until what level?
Not sure? Don't know? Don't trade. Wait for a better trade.
Worried? Scared? Breathe. Let stops or targets decide, not emotions. Size down.
Practice daily, real or sim. Get your reps in.
Is this a key level's first touch? It usually holds.
Should you be waiting for a 2nd entry?
Near EOD or Friday? DTE days far enough out?
About to trade? Where's the stop? Where are the targets?
Where is the next explosive trade level?
What's a great entry that may fail and trap traders?
Set alerts and targets, don't stare at PA, it's toxic.

Technical Analysis (TA)

Logarithmic charts, Update TA at least every 5 bars on ALL timeframes
Update stops and targets on the chart after BOs
Price moves from line to line, OHLC
UTL DTL are the 3 widest points
Sup/res have one touch or the most touches
Current UTL DTL, potential future UTL DTL
DBs DTs, major highs and Lows. Major levels tend to hold on the first test.
Tests of UTL DTL BOPB HNS RBO DB DT
Pushes
Entries
Stops
Practice daily. Get your reps in. Real or sim, bar replay.
Volume analysis, hitting the bid sell volume vs lifting offers buy volume
Strong moves and big bars usually get 2nd moves
Strong moves and big bars leave orders behind, they get filled during PBs.
UTL DTL or key level fails only with a BO close
Wicks do the damage. Closes tell the story.

Big Picture Context, HTF Pattern

News? Massive attention?
Big move recently?
Great pattern or key level?
Overextended? Due for a big trend reversal?
2nd/3rd push? Trend might need 50%-75% retracement before UTL DTL resumption

TTF Pattern

New Trend, Trend Resumption, Trend Reversal, or Trading Range.
BOPB HNS DB DT TL test RBO? Or BO fail RBO? Trumps opposite side of these patterns
UTL DTL BO new trend, trust it unless PB to BOPB and HNS fail stop out close or PB test bounce fails at DT DB TL
Bull bear BO spike > strong trend TL > weaker trend TL
Bull bear BO spike close
Bull bear BO spike close PB RBO or wait for PB to test close RBO/2RBO
Bull bear BO close fail stop out
UTL DTL BO close
UTL DTL BO close fail RBO 2RBO
UTL DTL BO close PB RBO
UTL DTL BO close PB to BOPB HNS RBO DB DT test close RBO 2RBO new trend continuation
UTL DTL BO close Push to DB DT BOPB TL test close RBO 2RBO weaker trend continuation
Test RBO/2RBO fails stop out close
DB DT BO close
UTL DTL BOPB HNS DB DT test close bounce failure at DB DT BOPB RBO/2RBO
UTL DTL test close RBO 2RBO trend continuation
DB DT test close RBO 2RBO trend continuation
BOPB test close RBO 2RBO trend continuation
HNS or RBO test close RBO 2RBO
PB RC RBO 2RBO 3RBO Wedge reversal
Pattern entry fails stop out close or RBO 2RBO stop out, trapped traders

Entries

I'd rather be late and right, than early and wrong. A BO limit before close is likely early and wrong.
Let the market decide entries and exits, stops and targets. Not your emotions.
Is this trade picture worthy TTF and HTF? If not, don't trade.
Is this entry a pattern of yours? No? Then don't trade it.
Don't know? Don't trade. Set alerts.
Great TL DT DB BO? What happens if it fails?
Limit Close RC RBO 2RBO 2nd Entry 3RBO Wedge
TL/DB/DT/Big bar BO close or PB RBO new trend
BO but wait for PB to BOPB HNS RBO DB DT test reversal UTL DTL resumption
Pattern test or BO fails stops out, trapped traders, because big picture context
Bet on New Trend, Trend Resumption, Trend Reversal, or Trading Range.
Should you be looking to buy or sell here based on big picture context HTF?
Should you join the BO or wait for a PB?
3rd push RC RBO
Is this entry a scalp short only because you should be looking to buy? And vice versa
Buy at support TLs, Sell at resistance TLs

Stops, Trailed Stops, and Bet Risk

Let the market decide entries and exits, stops and targets, not your emotions
1 tick BO stop or require at least a small push after BO?
If you can't trade small positions, you definitely can't trade big positions
Update stops and targets on the chart after BOs
Bet size? Dollar Risk on this trade you're willing to lose? Including commissions and exchange fees.
Prior swing high low
Prior bar or entry bar high low
2nd 3rd Push RC RBO 2RBO or should it just be trailed to swing high low?
Big bar close or 2RBO near a target
Where is BOPB HNS high low stop? Not a bounce RBO or HNS 2RBO hold but the actual high low stop?
Trail Stop, can always get back in
Trail to new swing high low created by a BO
Trail to Breakeven or EOD
Trail to TL test RBO/2RBO
Trail to TL BO reversal
Trail to BO spike reversal
Scared? Let stops or targets decide, trade the plan, not emotions
Set alerts and targets, don't stare at PA.
If not using a hard stop, don't be stingy. Get out. Protect what you have.
Daily loss limits, protect what you have, and stop emotional trading

Targets

Update stops and targets on the chart after BOs
OHLC but bias closes. Nearest targets first, not what you hope
Key levels: TL DB DT BOPB HNS RBO
Close or RBO near a target
Big bar close
RC RBO 2RBO 3RBO
2nd 3rd push RC RBO 2RBO
Have Patience, let targets or stops decide exits, not your emotions
Lock in profits along the way, reduce risk

After Action Reviews (AAR)

Big picture context, pattern, entry, stops, targets, lessons learned
Worst mistakes:
Not trading with big picture context on the TTF. Scalp if not, but focus is the big picture context.
Trading too big, emotional, not the chart
Not respecting the stop, stopping out emotionally
Not getting out at stop, being stingy with limit orders
Not waiting for big picture context to match up with TTF
Not taking a test 2RBO over a bad signal bar even tho it's still a key test 2RBO

Disclaimer: Most traders fail. Most traders lose all or most of their money trading. This is not financial advice. Nothing on this site is a recommendation to buy or sell any security. This is my degenerate trading strategy. Read at your own peril.